One thing has been true since the beginning of this World Cup tournament and continues to be true: Las Vegas does not think fortune favors the United States. When I saw this tweet from a Vegas oddsmaker, I had to take a look and see what was going on.
The Bovada sports book currently has the line favoring a 2-1 Portugal win over the US. Portgual to win outright, the over on 2.5 goals, and a spread of +1 for the US are what lead me to that conclusion. In fact, the United States to win outright is a +260 bet. No wonder so many folk are jumping on it.
What we've seen so far from the second round of matches is that the open goal filled first round of matches is completely over. Now with actual stakes and a real possibility of advancing or going home, teams are playing much more defensively. The over/under is a result of Vegas trying to recover from the trend of folk making money off the big scores in the first round. 2-1 isn't mostly likely, but it's what the trend of the first week makes folk think will happen.
With Portugal needing to make two changes to the left side of its back line, I'm predicting we'll see Klinsmann go with a 4-1-4-1, where Clint Dempsey can end up partnering with Michael Bradley and Graham Zusi on the right and attack that possible weakness. If the US can get the early goal, anything is possible.
In other words, I would take that bet.