We've taken a look at various playoff clinching scenarios, now it's time to discuss the likelihood of the various LA Galaxy finishes. Forbes soccer statistician Zach Slaton calculated current MLS odds for various finishes and it shouldn't be surprising to Galaxy fans that the team is given a 0% chance at winning the Supporters' Shield. With that possibility realistically off the table, it's time to look at how else the final month of the season can play out.
Slaton gives LA a 90% chance to make the playoffs, and a 34% chance to finish in the top three. That of course makes the wildcard playoff the most likely starting point for for LA, which if they won would lead to playing the first place Western Conference team on the road. Last year that's exactly how LA made MLS Cup, going from wildcard through San Jose, then Seattle, and hosting MLS Cup since Houston were the road wildcard team in the east.
The Earthquakes are currently the team with the only real likelihood of sneaking into the playoffs and Colorado are the only team considered at risk for dropping out. LA and the Rapids are currently tied on points with San Jose one point behind. However, with San Jose off this weekend LA can put four point between them. Colorado has a tougher task hosting the Seattle Sounders than LA has in hosting eliminated Chivas USA.
The stats don't see much likelihood for the Whitecaps getting back into the playoff race, but LA needs their help this weekend to have a top three finish as a possibility. If Vancouver can't get the victory, that 34% chance is going to shrink even more. The Caps are currently down to an 8% chance of making the playoffs.